Track record · closed signal

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026 — -19.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$75.85 – $78.81Entry zone — fair-value band

$78.22Published — price the day we called it

$89.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$83.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$63.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-19.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$63.16

last close inside the window, ended July 12, 2026

Peak price

$83.73

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$89.28

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$75.85 – $78.81

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$78.22

published April 13, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Booz Allen looks like a lower-volatility rebound candidate for the next few months. The stock is reasonably priced, the balance sheet is solid, and its work for defense and intelligence creates steady demand. Recent news about earnings timing and space investments could lift sentiment, though revenue weakness means caution is warranted.

Primary drivers

Defense and government work keeps demand steadier than other sectors
Strong balance sheet and calmer price swings limit downside risk
May earnings timing could change investor sentiment quickly
Investments in space and mission work keep the company relevant

How it played out

BAH: target missed as shares ended at $63.16

Lyra published BAH at $78.22 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to steady defense and government demand, a strong balance sheet, calmer price swings, May earnings, and investments in space and mission work. It also noted revenue weakness as a risk.

The stock reached a window peak of $83.73 on June 1, a gain of 7%. That stayed below the $89.28 target, which was never reached. BAH ended the window at $63.16. The thesis partially played out during the rise, but the target was missed and the final outcome was negative.

What happened during the window

On May 22, Booz Allen reported preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results. On June 22, it announced an agreement to acquire Ultra I&C Mission Solutions for $720 million. Neither announcement established why the share price moved.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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