Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from July 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025 — +3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$88.00 – $90.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.29Published — price the day we called it

$104.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$94.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$94.07

last close inside the window, ended October 26, 2025

Peak price

$101.99

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 28, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$104.98

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$88.00 – $90.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.29

published July 28, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a recent 20% slide, Uber’s share price is starting to climb again. On July 28 the firm ordered 20,000 electric cars from Lucid and got approval to test self-driving rides in Saudi Arabia. Profit margins are wider and cash flow has turned positive. With many investors optimistic before early-August results, a move toward $105 over the next three months seems reachable.

Primary drivers

Ordering 20k Lucid electric cars can cut ride costs and lift Uber’s eco image.
Price action hints sellers are done, leaving space for the stock to rebound.
Rising margins and new cash flow show Uber’s core business is stronger.
Approval for self-driving rides in Saudi Arabia adds a new market and tech angle.

How it played out

UBER: the stock rose but missed the target

Lyra published UBER on July 28, 2025 at $91.29, with a short-term expectation of 15% growth. The thesis pointed to a recent 20% slide starting to reverse, a 20,000-car Lucid order, approval to test self-driving rides in Saudi Arabia, wider margins, positive cash flow, and investor optimism before early-August results.

Inside the window from July 28 to October 26, UBER peaked at $101.99 on September 22. That was an 11.7% gain, but it stayed below the $104.98 target. It ended at $94.07. The thesis partially played out: the stock rose, but it never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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