Track record · closed signal

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — closed signal from April 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTDR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$59.86 Published $68.24 Target $51.38 Window close $63.88 Peak
$58.00 – $61.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$59.86Published — price the day we called it
$68.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$63.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$51.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$63.88
peak on May 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$51.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
April 11, 2026 – July 10, 2026

The thesis — published April 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$68.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$58.00 – $61.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$59.86
published April 11, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Matador is being watched for a short-term rebound, not recommended as a long-term core holding. Oil prices staying firm and faster analyst profit estimates could help the stock rise soon, but the company's results swing a lot with oil and it has more debt risk than stronger peers, so the setup is still early.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger oil prices should boost near-term cash flow
  • Analysts recently raised profit estimates, which helps sentiment
  • Previously weak price action can lead to a short rebound
  • High commodity sensitivity and debt limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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