Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from July 28, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025 — +51.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 70 days.
The thesis — published July 28, 2025
AMD is holding strong after a 15% dip back to its recent average price, setting up nicely for the 5 Aug earnings report, where Wall Street expects sales to grow roughly one-third from last year. Excitement stayed high after Samsung won a Tesla chip order, and trading in options is about two-and-a-half times busier than usual. If management says its new MI-300 chip will ship fast, past patterns point to an 18% pop; we aim for a 25% climb to about $205 within three months as positive mood and solid results line up.
Primary drivers
- Top scores for price strength and investor mood keep AMD leading the AI chip race
- Earnings on 5 Aug: analysts expect sales up ~35%, driven by the MI-300 chip
- Options trading is 2.5 times busier and tilted bullish ahead of earnings
- Pullbacks keep stopping near $160, giving a clear level to manage risk
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 70 days
Lyra published AMD at $166.47 on 2025-07-28 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth to $208.09. The thesis pointed to price strength, investor mood around artificial intelligence chips, the 5 Aug earnings setup, expected sales growth of roughly 35%, bullish options activity at 2.5 times usual levels, the MI-300 chip, and pullbacks near $160.
Inside the window, AMD reached the target in 70 days. The stock peaked at $253.39 on 2025-10-24, with a peak gain of 52.2%, and ended at $252.92. The published thesis played out and then went further than its target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-06, AMD and OpenAI announced a multibillion-dollar partnership for 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, starting with MI450 chips in 2026. On 2025-10-14, AMD and Oracle announced a plan to deploy 50,000 MI450 Instinct GPUs in Oracle cloud infrastructure, with deployment set for the second half of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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