Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from July 28, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 70 days.
The thesis — published July 28, 2025
AMD is holding strong after a 15% dip back to its recent average price, setting up nicely for the 5 Aug earnings report, where Wall Street expects sales to grow roughly one-third from last year. Excitement stayed high after Samsung won a Tesla chip order, and trading in options is about two-and-a-half times busier than usual. If management says its new MI-300 chip will ship fast, past patterns point to an 18% pop; we aim for a 25% climb to about $205 within three months as positive mood and solid results line up.
Primary drivers
- Top scores for price strength and investor mood keep AMD leading the AI chip race
- Earnings on 5 Aug: analysts expect sales up ~35%, driven by the MI-300 chip
- Options trading is 2.5 times busier and tilted bullish ahead of earnings
- Pullbacks keep stopping near $160, giving a clear level to manage risk
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 70 days
Lyra published AMD at $166.47 on 2025-07-28 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth to $208.09. The thesis pointed to price strength, investor mood around artificial intelligence chips, the 5 Aug earnings setup, expected sales growth of roughly 35%, bullish options activity at 2.5 times usual levels, the MI-300 chip, and pullbacks near $160.
Inside the window, AMD reached the target in 70 days. The stock peaked at $253.39 on 2025-10-24, with a peak gain of 52.2%, and ended at $252.92. The published thesis played out and then went further than its target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-06, AMD and OpenAI announced a multibillion-dollar partnership for 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, starting with MI450 chips in 2026. On 2025-10-14, AMD and Oracle announced a plan to deploy 50,000 MI450 Instinct GPUs in Oracle cloud infrastructure, with deployment set for the second half of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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