Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 9, 2026 — +12.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.04 Published $14.36 Target $14.66 Window close $15.01 Peak
$12.41 – $12.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.04Published — price the day we called it
$14.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 63 days.

At window close
+12.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+10.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.66
last close inside the window, ended July 9, 2026
Peak price
$15.01
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
63

The thesis — published April 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.41 – $12.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.04
published April 10, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a steadier short-term bank pick because its price seems supported, operations are improving, and a clear earnings event is coming. New leadership in small-business banking and insider buying add support. The recent strong move makes a pullback toward support a more sensible entry.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings could show stronger loan and deposit trends, confirming momentum
  • New small-business banking leadership should help grow the franchise
  • Price still looks reasonable given the improving operational results
  • Insider buying and a positive rating offer extra downside protection

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 63 days

Lyra published VLY at 13.04 with an expected gain of 11% and a target of 14.36. The thesis pointed to improving operations, stronger loan and deposit trends, new small-business banking leadership, insider buying, and a positive rating. It also favored an entry after a pullback toward the 12.41 to 12.85 range.

The shares reached the target in 63 days. They later peaked at 15.01 on July 7, a gain of 15.1%, and finished the window at 14.66. The peak and closing price were both above the published target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 23, 2026, Valley reported first-quarter net income of $163.9 million, or $0.28 per diluted share. It also reported total deposits of $52.9 billion as of March 31, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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