Track record · closed signal

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — closed signal from April 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 9, 2026 — -14.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTDR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$58.50 – $60.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$59.81Published — price the day we called it

$66.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$63.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$51.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 62% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$51.38

last close inside the window, ended July 9, 2026

Peak price

$63.88

peak on May 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$66.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$58.50 – $60.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$59.81

published April 10, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

MTDR looks like a bet on an early bounce rather than a proven leader. Analysts raised forecasts and one upgrade improved sentiment, and the stock is priced low enough to offer some protection. Because oil moves fast, the rebound is possible but not yet confirmed, so confidence remains cautious.

Primary drivers

Analysts raised forecasts, improving future profit expectations
A recent upgrade can lift investor interest during weak markets
Lower stock price limits downside if energy stays choppy
Stock was sold heavily and could rebound if crude steadies

How it played out

MTDR: rose 6.8% but missed the target

Lyra published an early-bounce thesis with expected growth of 11% from $59.81 toward $66.38. The thesis pointed to raised analyst forecasts, a recent upgrade, the lower share price, and the chance of a rebound if crude steadied. Confidence was cautious because the rebound was not yet confirmed.

MTDR reached its window peak of $63.88 on May 4, a gain of 6.8%. It stayed below the $66.38 target throughout the window. By July 9, it had fallen to $51.38, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out at first, but the expected gain was not reached and the signal ended as a miss.

What happened during the window

On May 6, Matador reported first-quarter results, increased its full-year production guidance, and reaffirmed its capital spending guidance. On June 29, it announced that San Mateo had agreed to acquire Cardinal Midstream's operating subsidiaries.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MTDR signals