Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from April 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 8, 2026 — +2.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$75.96 Published $80.43 Target $77.92 Window close $79.29 Peak
$73.92 – $75.19Entry zone — fair-value band
$75.96Published — price the day we called it
$80.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$79.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$77.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+2.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+9.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$77.92
last close inside the window, ended July 8, 2026
Peak price
$79.29
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+7%
over the measurement window
Target price
$80.43
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$73.92 – $75.19
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$75.96
published April 9, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty is presented as a defensive holding for the next quarter. The stock has steadier price action than many growth names and an upcoming earnings report that will focus attention on property quality and whether management keeps guidance steady. Expected upside is limited; the appeal is lower volatility while the market remains unsettled into results.

Primary drivers

  • Retail properties with long leases give steadier rent income
  • Insiders buying signals faith in properties and cash flow
  • Earnings will show whether guidance holds for interest-rate sensitivity
  • Price action is calmer than higher-momentum stocks

How it played out

ADC: rose 4.4% but missed the target

Lyra published ADC at 75.96 as a defensive short-term holding with expected growth of 7%. The thesis pointed to long retail leases, insider buying, steadier rent income, calmer price action, and earnings as a test of whether guidance held under interest-rate sensitivity.

During the window, shares peaked at 79.29 on July 7, 2026, a 4.4% gain. The price stayed below the 80.43 target and never reached it. ADC ended the window at 77.92. The thesis partially played out: the price rose, but the expected 7% growth did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On April 21, 2026, Agree Realty reported first-quarter adjusted funds from operations of 1.14 per share, up 7.9%, and said it had invested about $424 million in 100 retail net lease properties.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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