Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from April 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 8, 2026 — +12.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.26 – $12.66Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.89Published — price the day we called it

$14.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 62 days.

At window close

+12.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.47

last close inside the window, ended July 8, 2026

Peak price

$15.01

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.26 – $12.66

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.89

published April 9, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks steadier because its price, plans to return cash to shareholders, and an upcoming earnings report are aligned. The bank named a new small-business leader and announced buybacks, which supports the business story. The recent price move has been fast, so timing is important; the next quarter could be constructive if earnings confirm improving momentum.

Primary drivers

New commercial and small-business efforts could grow customer activity and revenue
Share buybacks increase the amount of stock held for remaining shareholders
Current valuation looks more reasonable than many other regional banks
Earnings coming soon could confirm whether business trends are improving

How it played out

VLY: target reached in 62 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for VLY at $12.89, with 10% expected growth. The thesis pointed to new commercial and small-business efforts, share buybacks, a valuation it viewed as reasonable, and an upcoming earnings report that could confirm improving business trends.

The shares reached the $14.07 target in 62 days. They later peaked at $15.01 on July 7, a 16.5% gain, then ended the window at $14.47. The price moved past the published target and stayed above it at the end. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 23, Valley reported first-quarter net income of $163.9 million and $0.28 per diluted common share. On May 14, it announced the full redemption of $300 million in subordinated notes, scheduled for June 15.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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