Track record · closed signal

HealthEquity Inc (HQY) — closed signal from April 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 8, 2026 — +15.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HQY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$83.76 Published $96.32 Target $96.98 Window close $98.34 Peak
$82.00 – $84.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$83.76Published — price the day we called it
$96.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$98.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$96.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 88 days.

At window close
+15.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+9.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$96.98
last close inside the window, ended July 8, 2026
Peak price
$98.34
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
88

The thesis — published April 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$96.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$82.00 – $84.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$83.76
published April 9, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HealthEquity is growing steadily because it focuses on doing the business well rather than riding a hot market trend. Recent company updates showed strong health savings account growth, expansion of a marketplace for services, and a new board member to strengthen oversight. The price pattern looks reasonable, so consistent execution could help the stock trade at higher levels over the next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • Consistent execution has produced reliable profit patterns
  • Record growth in health savings accounts widens the customer base
  • Marketplace growth creates another way to make money
  • Price action is orderly and not as crowded as many growth names

How it played out

HQY: target reached in 88 days

Lyra published HQY at $83.76 with an $82 to $84.50 entry zone and expected 15% growth to $96.32. The thesis pointed to consistent execution, growth in health savings accounts, marketplace expansion, and orderly price action.

The price reached the $96.32 target in 88 days. It peaked at $98.34 on July 7, a 17.4% gain, then ended the window at $96.98. The peak exceeded the target, and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 28, 2026, HealthEquity reported first-quarter revenue of $354.6 million and raised its fiscal 2027 guidance. The company also said its board had increased the share repurchase program by $1.0 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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