Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corp (BAC) — closed signal from April 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 7, 2026 — +15.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.87 Published $56.76 Target $59.86 Window close $60.83 Peak
$48.99 – $50.97Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.87Published — price the day we called it
$56.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$59.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close
+15.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+10.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$59.86
last close inside the window, ended July 7, 2026
Peak price
$60.83
peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
69

The thesis — published April 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$56.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.99 – $50.97
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.87
published April 8, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America is a solid, well-run bank, but recent buying has already pushed expectations higher ahead of the next earnings report. The stock could be hurt if results or commentary disappoint. The balance sheet is a positive, but after the recent run the likely gains are limited compared with the risks around the event.

Primary drivers

  • Broad bank services help steady revenue from many sources
  • An upcoming earnings report creates a near-term event that can move shares
  • A strong balance sheet reduces the chance of a big decline from routine volatility
  • Recent price gains mean less room for upside if results disappoint

How it played out

BAC: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published BAC at $51.87 with expected growth of 10% and a $56.76 target. The thesis pointed to broad banking services and a strong balance sheet, while warning that recent gains left limited upside and that the upcoming earnings report could move the shares.

The shares reached the target in 69 days. They peaked at $60.83 on July 7, a gain of 17.3%, and ended the window at $59.86. The peak was above the target, and the closing price remained above it. The published growth case played out and was exceeded inside the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On April 15, 2026, Bank of America reported first-quarter net income of $8.6 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.11.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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