Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B) — closed signal from April 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 6, 2026 — +6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$476.03 Published $518.87 Target $506.58 Window close $508.00 Peak
$468.00 – $478.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$476.03Published — price the day we called it
$518.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$508.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$506.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+6.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$506.58
last close inside the window, ended July 6, 2026
Peak price
$508.00
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$518.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$468.00 – $478.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$476.03
published April 7, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire is presented as a steadier, lower-volatility holding while overall market risk is high. Recent reports about more maritime insurance business show it can profit when shipping costs or claims rise, and a very strong balance sheet helps protect the stock in downturns. Trading near its short-term trend makes the next 0-3 months look stable rather than explosive, but still worth watching for steady returns.

Primary drivers

  • Big cash pile helps limit losses in market drops
  • More shipping-insurance work could boost profit during stress
  • Many businesses reduce reliance on one industry
  • Price is close to its recent trend, not extended above it

How it played out

BRK-B: rose 6.7%, but missed the target

Lyra published BRK-B at $476.03, expecting a 9% rise over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to its cash pile as protection in market drops, more shipping insurance as a possible profit source during stress, its mix of businesses, and a price near its recent trend.

BRK-B rose, but the full thesis did not play out. It peaked at $508 on July 6, 2026, a 6.7% gain, and never reached the $518.87 target. It ended the window at $506.58 on July 6, 2026. The expected 9% rise was missed, so the result was partial.

What happened during the window

On May 2, 2026, Berkshire reported first-quarter net earnings of $10.106 billion and operating earnings of $11.346 billion. On May 31, 2026, it announced an agreement to acquire Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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