Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from July 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$86.00 – $92.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.29Published — price the day we called it

$118.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$94.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$101.99

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$94.07

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 27, 2025 – October 25, 2025

The thesis — published July 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$118.68

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$86.00 – $92.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.29

published July 27, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber shares have slid 10%, bringing the price back to its longer uptrend. This drop makes the stock look cheap again while enthusiasm from investors stays very strong. Fresh headlines about self-driving cars and air taxis add to the growth story, and a possible move into the S&P 500 later this year could pull in large index funds. Big professional investors remain active and profit margins are rising, so a bounce toward $120 within three months seems realistic.

Primary drivers

Two trusted price measures now align, hinting at a strong chance of a rebound soon
Positive news on air taxis and self-driving tech keeps investor mood almost perfect
Each new dollar of sales brings over 25 cents of profit, proving solid progress
Could join the S&P 500 after four straight profitable quarters, drawing fund buying

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at $91.29 on 2025-07-27. The thesis expected 30% growth toward $118.68 within three months. It pointed to a 10% slide back toward the longer uptrend, strong investor enthusiasm, self-driving cars and air taxis, possible S&P 500 inclusion, active professional investors, and rising profit margins.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $101.99 on 2025-09-22, an 11.7% gain. That stayed below $118.68, so the target was never reached. It ended at $94.07 on 2025-10-25. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On August 6, 2025, Uber reported second-quarter results and announced a $20 billion buyback. On September 10, 2025, The Verge reported that Joby and Uber planned to bring Blade helicopter booking into the Uber app as soon as next year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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