Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from April 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$935.58 Published $1,113.34 Target $1,213.91 Window close $1,238.00 Peak
$920.00 – $945.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$935.58Published — price the day we called it
$1,113.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,238.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,213.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

Peak price
$1,238.00
peak on June 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+32.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,213.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
54
Window
April 4, 2026 – July 3, 2026

The thesis — published April 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,113.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$920.00 – $945.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$935.58
published April 4, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly just got FDA approval for a once-daily oral obesity drug, Foundayo. That approval could prompt analysts to raise sales and profit forecasts and strengthen Lilly's lead in a growing market for weight treatments. The stock is trading near short-term support and shows steady momentum, making the current setup more appealing than many post-approval moves.

Primary drivers

  • Foundayo approval widens the market for an oral obesity medicine
  • Strong diabetes and obesity franchises give steady revenue support
  • Recent earnings helped push forecasts higher
  • Stock sits near short-term support with steady momentum

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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