Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from April 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 1, 2026 — +2.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.96 Published $35.47 Target $34.70 Window close $43.10 Peak
$31.22 – $33.06Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.96Published — price the day we called it
$35.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$34.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

At window close
+2.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+26.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$34.70
last close inside the window, ended July 1, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
34

The thesis — published April 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.22 – $33.06
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.96
published April 2, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline can benefit in the short term when shipping through the Red Sea and Hormuz is disrupted, since that keeps payment for voyages higher. The company is also generating strong cash when rates are up, but those gains depend a lot on political events and on the company running things smoothly. We see it as tradeable on price drops, not a top long-term pick.

Primary drivers

  • Disruptions near key sea routes can keep shipping fees higher
  • Strong cash flow when the shipping cycle is healthy
  • Price drops give a clearer buying opportunity after a run-up
  • High sensitivity to headlines makes the case less stable

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 9% growth from a price of $33.96. The thesis pointed to higher shipping fees during route disruptions, strong cash flow when shipping rates were healthy, and better entries after price drops. It also noted that headline sensitivity made the case less stable.

FRO reached the $35.47 target in 34 days. It later peaked at $43.10 on June 24, a gain of 26.9%. The price ended the window at $34.70, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 22, 2026, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million, adjusted profit of $344.9 million, and a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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