Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from April 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 1, 2026 — +1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$73.43 – $75.88Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.56Published — price the day we called it

$81.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$79.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$76.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$76.28

last close inside the window, ended July 1, 2026

Peak price

$79.18

peak on April 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$81.49

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$73.43 – $75.88

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.56

published April 2, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty looks like a steady, defensive choice. Shares are trading near a price area that has held up before, insiders have shown supportive activity, and the April 21 earnings date gives a clear near-term event to watch. A recent higher price target also backs valuation. Expect steady income-style performance rather than rapid gains.

Primary drivers

April 21 earnings give a near-term event that could move the stock
Insider buying and higher target add credibility to the valuation
Long-term leases to national tenants fit a defensive market stance
Price is near a prior holding area after only a small pullback

How it played out

ADC: shares rose 4.8%, but the target was missed

Lyra published ADC at $75.56 with expected growth of 9% toward $81.49. The thesis pointed to the April 21 earnings release, insider buying, a higher price target, long-term leases to national tenants, and a price area that had held before. It expected steady, income-style performance.

The shares peaked at $79.18 on April 20, a gain of 4.8%. They stayed below the target throughout the window. ADC ended the period at $76.28, above the published price but well below the peak. The thesis partially played out, since the shares rose but never reached the expected level.

What happened during the window

On April 21, 2026, Agree Realty reported first-quarter AFFO per share of $1.14, up 7.9%, and said it had invested about $424 million in 100 retail net lease properties.

Agree Realty Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ADC signals