Track record · closed signal

Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM) — closed signal from April 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 30, 2026 — -33.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRIM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$142.00 – $147.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$145.82Published — price the day we called it

$158.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$205.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$97.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 7 days.

At window close

-33.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+40.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$97.24

last close inside the window, ended June 30, 2026

Peak price

$205.50

peak on May 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$158.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$142.00 – $147.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$145.82

published April 1, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Company results have been better than the headline profit margin implies, and a recent acquisition gives a clear near-term reason the stock could move. The PayneCrest deal adds electrical and data-center work, while management's note that renewable-related sales could be flat this year argues caution. The setup looks constructive if shares stay near their trend after the deal.

Primary drivers

PayneCrest adds electrical and data-center work
Consistent strong execution in recent reports
Power and infrastructure work strengthens backlog quality
Post-deal reset clarifies near-term outlook

How it played out

PRIM: target reached in 7 days, then shares fell

Lyra published PRIM at $145.82 with an expected gain of 9% and a $158.94 target. The thesis pointed to the PayneCrest acquisition, electrical and data-center work, strong execution in recent reports, and power and infrastructure work. It also noted caution around renewable-related sales.

The shares reached the target in 7 days and later peaked at $205.50 on May 5, a gain of 40.9%. The move did not hold. PRIM ended the window at $97.24, below both the target and publication price. The short-term thesis played out, but the gain reversed before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On May 5, Primoris reported first-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion and said it had completed the PayneCrest acquisition on May 1. On June 22, the company reported further challenges and cost overruns in its renewables business and updated its full-year outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PRIM signals