Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from April 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 30, 2026 — +10.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$175.74 Published $202.10 Target $194.97 Window close $236.54 Peak
$172.00 – $178.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$175.74Published — price the day we called it
$202.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$194.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

At window close
+10.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+34.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$194.97
last close inside the window, ended June 30, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
19

The thesis — published April 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$202.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$172.00 – $178.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$175.74
published April 1, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is in a strong position because business activity is very strong, the company has plenty of cash, and its stock has steadied after a volatile period. Big funding news for OpenAI adds likely demand for NVIDIA's compute products. The chart is not fully healed, so the idea is to watch a disciplined trading range rather than assume an immediate strong upward move.

Primary drivers

  • Demand for AI servers and chips drives most revenue
  • Large OpenAI funding likely increases infrastructure spending
  • A strong cash position helps the company execute plans
  • High trading volumes indicate big investors are active

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 19 days

Lyra published a 15% growth thesis from a price of 175.74, with a target of 202.10. The thesis pointed to demand for servers and chips used in artificial intelligence, funding news tied to a major computing customer, NVIDIA's cash position, and high trading volumes. It also noted that the chart had not fully recovered.

The shares reached the target in 19 days. They later peaked at 236.54 on May 14, 2026, a gain of 34.6%. The price ended the window at 194.97, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the measured window.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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