Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026 — +1.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$14.20 – $15.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$14.97Published — price the day we called it

$17.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close

+1.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.18

last close inside the window, ended June 29, 2026

Peak price

$19.32

peak on April 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$17.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$14.20 – $15.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$14.97

published March 31, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold is positioned as a defensive holding because recent interim results looked constructive and global headlines still favor safe-haven metals when geopolitical tensions rise. Shares have eased from recent highs, creating a more reasonable buying area, and the mix of gold exposure, defensive trading traits, and modest valuation can help damp volatility.

Primary drivers

Exposure to gold benefits when markets seek safety
Recent interim results showed steady operating progress
Trades like a defensive name that can cushion swings
Recent pullback makes the setup more reasonable

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published HMY at $14.97 with expected growth of 15% and a target of $17.21. The thesis pointed to gold exposure during periods of market stress, steady operating progress in recent interim results, defensive trading traits, and a recent pullback that made the entry area more reasonable.

HMY reached the target in 8 days. It peaked at $19.32 on April 17, a gain of 29.1% from publication. The price then fell back and ended the window at $15.18. The thesis played out within the measurement window, though the rise did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On April 29, Harmony announced that MSCI had raised its environmental, social and governance rating from BB to A. On May 18, Harmony reported a strong third quarter and said it remained on track to meet its full-year production, cost, and grade guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HMY signals