Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026 — +7.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$32.99 Published $36.04 Target $35.44 Window close $43.10 Peak
$30.76 – $32.32Entry zone — fair-value band
$32.99Published — price the day we called it
$36.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$35.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

At window close
+7.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$35.44
last close inside the window, ended June 29, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
38

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.04
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.76 – $32.32
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$32.99
published March 31, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline is kept as a short-term hedge because shipping routes and re-routing headlines are making tanker rates firm. This is not a typical recovery play; instead it offers a different way to benefit if energy shipping stays tight. That diversification matters while broader stock leadership is unstable and could keep freight rates elevated.

Primary drivers

  • Route problems are keeping tanker rates strong
  • Industry reports show tight economics for tankers
  • Exposure to oil shipping gives a different equity hedge
  • Stock is rising on its own, not waiting for the market

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published FRO at $32.99 with expected growth of 14% and a $36.04 target. The thesis pointed to strong tanker rates amid route problems, tight industry economics, oil-shipping exposure as an equity hedge, and a stock already rising independently of the broader market.

FRO reached the target in 38 days and later peaked at $43.10 on June 24, a 30.7% gain. It ended the measurement window at $35.44, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the window, and the peak exceeded the published objective.

What happened during the window

On May 22, 2026, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and revenue of $714.2 million. It also declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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