Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026 — +19.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$21.57 Published $24.07 Target $25.80 Window close $26.11 Peak
$20.79 – $21.67Entry zone — fair-value band
$21.57Published — price the day we called it
$24.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$26.11Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$25.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close
+19.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+21.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$25.80
last close inside the window, ended June 29, 2026
Peak price
$26.11
peak on June 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
36

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$24.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$20.79 – $21.67
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$21.57
published March 31, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Old National is being watched for the next few months because recent news strengthened its local-banking reputation: a top community-service rating and work on a token-based deposit network. For a smaller bank in a nervous market, the stock looks steadier than speculative. If pressure on regional banks eases, steady results and fair valuation could help a gradual recovery.

Primary drivers

  • Top community-service rating supports the bank's local reputation and trust
  • Work on token-based deposits adds a modern payments capability
  • Consistent day-to-day banking results back the investment idea
  • Price action looks orderly rather than driven by wild speculation

How it played out

ONB: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published ONB at $21.57 with 13% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a top community-service rating, work on token-based deposits, consistent banking results, and orderly price action. It expected a gradual recovery if pressure on regional banks eased.

The shares reached the $24.07 target in 36 days. They later peaked at $26.11 on June 25, a 21.1% gain, and ended the window at $25.80. The price cleared the target and stayed above it at the close. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 22, 2026, Old National reported first-quarter net income applicable to common shares of $229.6 million and diluted earnings of $0.59 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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