Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026 — +35% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$895.00 – $920.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$911.02Published — price the day we called it

$1,056.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,238.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,229.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

At window close

+35%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,229.93

last close inside the window, ended June 29, 2026

Peak price

$1,238.00

peak on June 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,056.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$895.00 – $920.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$911.02

published March 31, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY is a defensive growth pick for the next few months because recent deals keep its drug pipeline in focus while established medicines provide steady sales. The stock fell a bit, which makes the price range more workable. If investors favor steady earnings and health-sector leadership again, the stock is positioned to recover.

Primary drivers

Obesity and flagship drugs keep revenue stable and reliable
Centessa deal adds new drug programs and future upside
Insilico tie-up brings faster, tech-driven drug discovery potential
The recent price drop creates a calmer, more balanced setup

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 52 days

Lyra published LLY at $911.02 on March 31, expecting 16% growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to steady sales from obesity and flagship medicines, new drug programs from the Centessa deal, faster drug discovery potential from the Insilico tie-up, and a more balanced setup after the recent price drop.

Within the window, LLY reached the $1,056.78 target in 52 days. It peaked at $1,238 on June 29, a 35.9% gain, and ended the window at $1,229.93. Both the peak and closing price were above the target. The published thesis played out, and the stock moved beyond the expected growth.

What happened during the window

On April 30, Lilly reported first-quarter revenue growth of 56% and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On May 6, the company announced an additional $4.5 billion investment across two Indiana manufacturing sites.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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