Track record · closed signal

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) — closed signal from March 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 28, 2026 — +20.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.50 – $19.75Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.35Published — price the day we called it

$22.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$32.14Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$23.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 2 days.

At window close

+20.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+66.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+15.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$23.30

last close inside the window, ended June 28, 2026

Peak price

$32.14

peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 30, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.50 – $19.75

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.35

published March 30, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Hudbay is a bet on copper where company news may matter more than the weak price pattern. Recent announcements - longer mine lives, better copper forecasts, and a joint venture with Mitsubishi - make project plans more visible and give funding and execution credibility. The idea still carries higher risk, but the valuation and upcoming progress keep a near-term recovery plausible.

Primary drivers

Longer mine lives and better forecasts make future output clearer
Joint venture with Mitsubishi increases funding and execution trust
Direct copper exposure benefits if industrial demand improves
Weak price pattern could allow catch-up if news is accepted

How it played out

HBM: target reached in 2 days

Lyra published HBM at 19.35 with a 15% expected gain and a 22.25 target. The thesis pointed to longer mine lives, better copper forecasts, Mitsubishi joint venture support, direct copper exposure, and the chance that a weak price pattern could recover if company news was accepted.

HBM reached the 22.25 target in 2 days. It later rose to a 32.14 peak on June 2, a 66.1% gain. The shares ended the window at 23.30, still above the target and the 19.35 publication price. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On April 2, Hudbay said it had repaid its outstanding senior notes due in 2026. On May 1, the company reported record quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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