Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from July 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 72 days.
The thesis — published July 26, 2025
AMD’s new MI300 chips for data centers and its AI-ready Ryzen laptops are turning the company into the main rival to Nvidia. Early reports say AMD could ship more units in the third quarter than Wall Street expects. Excitement is already very high, so the share price might be stretched for now. Nvidia recently reminded investors that data-center spending could reach $1 trillion, supporting AMD’s long-term story. Buying around $160 keeps possible gains toward $200 worthwhile.
Primary drivers
- If MI300 chip sales beat forecasts by 30%, profit for Q3 could jump sharply.
- Winning AI laptop deals spreads income across new products and could lift profit margins.
- Shares trade at 12 times 2025 sales while Nvidia is at 18, giving room for AMD’s price to catch up.
- A possible $1 trillion spending wave on data centers means years of demand for AMD’s chips.
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 72 days
Lyra published AMD at $166.47 on 2025-07-26. The thesis expected 25% growth toward $208.09. It pointed to MI300 data-center chips, Ryzen laptops ready for artificial intelligence workloads, possible Q3 unit upside, valuation room versus Nvidia, and a possible $1 trillion data-center spending wave.
Inside the window, AMD reached the target in 72 days. The stock peaked at $253.39 on 2025-10-24, above the $208.09 target, with a 52.2% peak gain. It ended at $252.92. The published thesis played out on price, and the move went beyond the stated target.
What happened during the window
On August 5, 2025, AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $7.685 billion and guided for about $8.7 billion in third-quarter revenue. On October 6, 2025, AMD and OpenAI announced a multi-year agreement for 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, starting with MI450 chips in 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.