Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from March 30, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 28, 2026 — +3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$71.47 – $74.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$74.29Published — price the day we called it

$79.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$79.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$77.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+15.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$77.03

last close inside the window, ended June 28, 2026

Peak price

$79.45

peak on April 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 30, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$79.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$71.47 – $74.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$74.29

published March 30, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty is a safer, income-focused REIT that looks more likely to claw back losses than surge quickly. New valuation reports and interest from big investors imply the downside is clearer, and renting properties to national tenants gives steadier cash. Still, sensitivity to interest rates and the stock being oversold point to a gradual recovery rather than a fast jump.

Primary drivers

Long-term leases give steadier rental cash and limit big drops
Valuation checks suggest shares may be nearer a fair floor than a peak
Interest from big investors and insider purchases add credibility
Current oversold condition can recover if interest rates stay stable

How it played out

ADC: target reached, but the 8% thesis fell short

Lyra published a short-term recovery thesis from $74.29, expecting 8% growth toward $79.39. The thesis pointed to long-term leases and steady rental cash, valuation checks near a fair floor, interest from large investors and insider purchases, and a possible recovery from an oversold condition if interest rates stayed stable.

Inside the window, ADC rose to $79.45 on April 20, above the $79.39 target. Its recorded peak gain was 7%, short of the expected 8%. The stock later ended the window at $77.03, below the target but above the $74.29 publication price. The thesis partially played out: the target was reached during the window, but the full expected gain was not sustained.

What happened during the window

On April 9, 2026, Agree Realty declared a monthly common dividend of $0.267 per share, a 4.3% increase from the prior year. On April 21, it reported first-quarter adjusted funds from operations of $1.14 per share, up 7.9%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ADC signals