Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from March 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 28, 2026 — +1.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$490.77 Published $549.66 Target $499.02 Window close $534.21 Peak
$485.00 – $500.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$490.77Published — price the day we called it
$549.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$534.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$499.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+15.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$499.02
last close inside the window, ended June 28, 2026
Peak price
$534.21
peak on April 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$549.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$485.00 – $500.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$490.77
published March 30, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard's core payments network is strong, profits are high, and recent results stayed steady even though the stock pulled back. New card programs tied to stablecoins suggest the network adapts to new payment methods rather than being bypassed. The recent price dip after a strong run looks constructive but still carries some risk.

Primary drivers

  • Card use and cross-border spending remain strong over time
  • New stablecoin card deals keep the network relevant
  • High profit margins and steady execution help limit downside
  • Price pullback creates space to recover without crowded interest

How it played out

MA: rose 8.9% but missed the target

Lyra published MA at $490.77 with an expected 12% rise and a $549.66 target. The thesis pointed to strong card use and cross-border spending, stablecoin card deals, high margins and steady execution. It also viewed the pullback as room for a recovery, while noting risk.

MA rose to a $534.21 peak on April 29, an 8.9% gain, but never reached the target during the short-term window. It ended the window at $499.02. The direction was right and part of the expected rise appeared, but the full thesis did not play out. This was a partial result.

What happened during the window

On June 3, 2026, Mastercard announced plans to expand settlement options to include regulated stablecoins, along with intraday, weekend and holiday settlement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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