Track record · closed signal

Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from March 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 28, 2026 — +4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$94.15 Published $106.39 Target $98.79 Window close $110.48 Peak
$92.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$94.15Published — price the day we called it
$106.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$110.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$98.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close
+4.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+15.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$98.79
last close inside the window, ended June 28, 2026
Peak price
$110.48
peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
21

The thesis — published March 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$106.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.00 – $96.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$94.15
published March 30, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Disney's business is showing clear operational improvement, most notably from its streaming service where profit has risen sharply. That progress makes margin recovery look more lasting rather than a one-time event. Shares have been pushed lower recently and trend strength is still weak, so the near-term thesis is a rebound attempt rather than a decisive uptrend.

Primary drivers

  • Streaming is making more profit and helping overall margins
  • Recent results were better than how the stock reacted
  • Shares are cheap from recent weakness, offering rebound potential
  • Strong brands and parks provide multiple ways the turnaround can stick

How it played out

DIS: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $94.15, with 13% expected growth and a $106.39 target. The thesis pointed to higher streaming profit, improving margins, results that seemed better than the share-price reaction, recent weakness, strong brands, and parks. It also noted that trend strength was still weak.

DIS reached the target in 21 days and later peaked at $110.48 on May 7, a 17.3% gain. The shares then fell back and ended the window at $98.79, still above the publication price but below the target. The published rebound thesis played out within the window.

What happened during the window

On May 6, 2026, Disney released its fiscal second-quarter results and held a webcast to discuss them.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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