Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 28, 2026 — -2.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.95Published — price the day we called it

$107.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$90.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+15.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$90.67

last close inside the window, ended June 28, 2026

Peak price

$100.76

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 30, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$107.82

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.00 – $94.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.95

published March 30, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like a reasonable candidate to rebound because the company is doing better while the stock is still low. Big client asset totals are helping fees, recent results have been steady, and the recent drop looks like a normal pullback rather than a frenzy. New updates on wealth and engagement could help if markets calm down.

Primary drivers

Large client assets are supporting fee income and stability
Earnings results have stayed steady despite market ups and downs
Recent price drop appears washed out and may allow an early bounce
Bigger platform scale could benefit if trading and sentiment improve

How it played out

SCHW: rose 8.4% but missed the target

On March 30, Lyra published a short-term thesis at $92.95, with a 16% expected gain. The thesis pointed to large client assets supporting fee income and stability, steady earnings through market swings, a washed-out price drop, and greater platform scale if trading and sentiment improved.

The stock rose to $100.76 on April 15, its peak in the window, for an 8.4% gain. It stayed below the $107.82 target and never reached it. By June 28, the price had fallen to $90.67. The thesis played out only partially: an early bounce occurred, but the expected 16% rebound did not.

What happened during the window

On April 16, Schwab reported first-quarter net income of $2.5 billion and revenue of $6.5 billion. On June 2, the company announced trading-platform updates, including select cryptocurrency futures trading around the clock and broader fractional trading.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals