Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY) — closed signal from July 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 55 days.
The thesis — published July 26, 2025
At about 5 times next year's expected profits, Harmony Gold is far cheaper than similar miners that trade near 34 times. The stock has been beaten down so much that bargain hunters are stepping in, and trading data shows far more buyers than sellers right now. A top independent rating and an 83% gain year-to-date reinforce the story. If gold prices stay firm, the shares could rebound toward $17 over the next quarter, giving tech-heavy portfolios some stability.
Primary drivers
- Price fell hard and is now attracting renewed buying, hinting at a bounce soon.
- Stock is cheap at 5 times future profit versus peers at 34, suggesting room to rise.
- Top analyst score and 83% gain this year show the company is already gaining steam.
- Strong gold prices lift earnings and investor mood toward gold producers like Harmony.
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 55 days
Lyra published HMY at $13.97 on 2025-07-26 with an 18% expected gain and a $16.43 target. The thesis pointed to a hard prior fall, renewed buying, a valuation near 5 times future profit versus peers near 34, a top analyst score, an 83% gain that year, and firm gold prices.
Inside the window, HMY reached the target in 55 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, with a 59.2% peak gain. The window ended on 2025-10-24 at $17.49. The published thesis played out and more than reached its price goal.
What happened during the window
On Aug. 28, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that Harmony Gold's fiscal 2025 earnings rose, while production fell and the company guided the next year at 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounces of gold.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.