Track record · closed signal

Elanco Animal Health Inc. (ELAN) — closed signal from July 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ELAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.92 Published $17.90 Target $22.05 Window close $22.26 Peak
$14.00 – $14.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.92Published — price the day we called it
$17.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$22.26Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$22.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

Peak price
$22.26
peak on October 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+49.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$22.05
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
19
Window
July 26, 2025 – October 24, 2025

The thesis — published July 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.90
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.00 – $14.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.92
published July 26, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Europe just said yes to Zenrelia, a daily pill that calms skin itching in dogs. This opens a sales opportunity worth about $500 million. If the medicine sells as expected, earnings per share in 2025 could jump by about one-third. Traders reacted positively on July 25, so the mood is upbeat and many expect the stock to revisit $18-19 within roughly three months, a gain of about 20 %. The price has held steady for weeks, hinting that most sellers are already out.

Primary drivers

  • European green light for Zenrelia could add about $0.28 to 2025 earnings
  • Price has been quietly firming after a lull, showing buyers may be taking control
  • Selling its farm-animal business could bring cash and help pay down debt faster
  • Around 8 % of shares are bet against; good news in August could force them to buy back

How it played out

ELAN: target reached in 19 days

Lyra published ELAN at 14.92 on 2025-07-26 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to Europe saying yes to Zenrelia, a sales opportunity worth about $500 million, possible 2025 earnings help, a firming price, a possible farm-animal business sale, and about 8% of shares bet against the stock.

Inside the 2025-07-26 to 2025-10-24 window, the stock reached the 17.9 target in 19 days. It kept rising and peaked at 22.26 on 2025-10-24, with a peak gain of 49.2%. It ended at 22.05. The published thesis played out, and the move went past the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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