Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from March 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 25, 2026 — -15.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.80 – $19.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.55Published — price the day we called it

$22.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.51Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 5 days.

At window close

-15.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+25.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+16.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.50

last close inside the window, ended June 25, 2026

Peak price

$24.51

peak on May 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 27, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.80 – $19.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.55

published March 27, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic is viewed as a selective hedge in quieter markets rather than a fast mover. Its stronger balance sheet makes it steadier than many miners, and news of an early loan repayment tied to La Guitarra improves confidence in cash flow. The stock has pulled back substantially; if sentiment toward precious metals improves and oversold pressure eases, a 0-3 month rebound looks plausible.

Primary drivers

Silver holdings add diversification during volatile markets
A healthier balance sheet reduces funding pressure
Early loan repayment news strengthens cash-flow visibility
Big recent pullback increases potential upside if market improves

How it played out

AG: $22.09 target reached in 5 days

Lyra published AG at $19.55 with expected growth of 13% and a $22.09 target. The thesis expected a rebound within 0-3 months after a substantial pullback. It pointed to silver holdings, a healthier balance sheet, early loan repayment news, and the possibility that precious-metals sentiment and oversold pressure would improve.

The stock reached the target in 5 days. It later peaked at $24.51 on May 12, a gain of 25.3%. That exceeded the published target. By the end of the window, however, it had fallen to $16.50, below the publication price. The thesis played out within the stated window, though the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On May 12, First Majestic reported first-quarter revenue of $476.7 million and net earnings of $128.1 million. On June 25, the company said it had received construction permits for the Santo Niño and Navidad portals.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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