Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from March 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 24, 2026 — +23.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.01 Published $36.37 Target $40.72 Window close $43.10 Peak
$30.30 – $32.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.01Published — price the day we called it
$36.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$40.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

At window close
+23.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$40.72
last close inside the window, ended June 24, 2026
Peak price
$43.10
peak on June 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
56

The thesis — published March 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.37
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.30 – $32.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.01
published March 26, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline is a short-term trade tied to shipping market changes after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. News and recent reports suggest tanker rates could stay higher, improving the company's earnings potential and valuation after the recent pullback. The setup depends on continued tight shipping conditions, and the stock is already trading above its recent trend, so upside is linked to sustained freight strength rather than a broad market rally.

Primary drivers

  • Strait of Hormuz event is keeping tanker rates stronger
  • Analyst updates still show upside after the pullback
  • Higher freight rates can boost earnings quickly
  • Better to buy on small dips while shares sit above trend

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 56 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for FRO at 33.01, with 15% expected growth and a 36.37 target. The thesis pointed to stronger tanker rates after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, analyst upside after the pullback, and the prospect that higher freight rates would lift earnings quickly. It depended on tight shipping conditions lasting.

FRO reached the 36.37 target in 56 days. It rose to a 43.10 peak on June 24, the final day of the window, for a 30.6% peak gain. It ended the window at 40.72, still above the published target. The short-term thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On May 22, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and revenue of $714.2 million. It also declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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