Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from July 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 26, 2025
Uber shares are about 18 percent below their peak, yet the firm is close to reporting its first official profit. Results due on Aug 6 should show it keeps more of each fare and is earning new ad money. The stock looks beaten down and many traders are betting on a fall, a mix that has led to quick rebounds before. New tie-ups with Waymo and WeRide on self-driving taxis add a growth story that could lift the price to 105-110 dollars within three months.
Primary drivers
- Early Aug results may reveal the first profit and brighter guidance
- Waymo and WeRide self-driving deals could cut costs long term
- Price looks oversold and heavy bearish bets set up a fast bounce
- Shares are cheaper than peers, leaving room for the market to revalue
How it played out
UBER: rose, but never reached the target
Lyra published UBER on 2025-07-26 at 91.29 with expected growth of 30% and a target of 118.68. The thesis pointed to early August results, possible first official profit and brighter guidance, Waymo and WeRide self-driving taxi deals, an oversold setup with heavy bearish bets, and a cheaper valuation than peers.
Inside the 2025-07-26 to 2025-10-24 window, UBER peaked at 101.99 on 2025-09-22. That was an 11.7% gain, but it stayed below the target. It ended at 94.07. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-06, Uber reported second-quarter results and announced a $20 billion buyback plan. The same report said revenue rose 18% to $12.65 billion and gross bookings rose 17% to $46.76 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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