Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from March 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 23, 2026 — +21.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$895.00 – $920.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$911.61Published — price the day we called it

$1,021.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,182.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,107.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

At window close

+21.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,107.08

last close inside the window, ended June 23, 2026

Peak price

$1,182.73

peak on June 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,021.01

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$895.00 – $920.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$911.61

published March 25, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly's core business is strong and recent news about Zepbound access at Kroger plus rising LillyDirect spending support demand for obesity treatments. The stock fell sharply and buying momentum hasn't fully stabilized, so a rebound is plausible in the next 0-3 months but timing is less certain than for steadier large-cap names.

Primary drivers

Obesity drug sales remain strong and support continued demand
Kroger access and LillyDirect expand where patients can obtain treatment
Reliable earnings help limit downside during market stress
Recent oversold move creates potential for a rebound if buying returns

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 49 days

Lyra published LLY at $911.61 with 12% expected growth and a $1,021.01 target. The thesis pointed to strong obesity drug sales, broader access through Kroger and LillyDirect, reliable earnings, and the chance of a rebound after the recent sharp fall. It also noted that buying had not fully stabilized.

The stock reached the target in 49 days. It later peaked at $1,182.73 on June 8, a 29.7% gain, and finished the window at $1,107.08. The peak and closing price were above the target. The published short-term thesis played out and exceeded its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On April 30, Lilly reported first-quarter revenue of $19.8 billion, up 56%, and raised its full-year guidance. On May 31, Lilly reported Phase 3 trial results for Retevmo in early-stage lung cancer.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals