Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares Inc (NWBI) — closed signal from March 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 22, 2026 — +17.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.00 – $12.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.41Published — price the day we called it

$13.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close

+17.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.59

last close inside the window, ended June 22, 2026

Peak price

$14.93

peak on June 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.00 – $12.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.41

published March 24, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Northwest Bancshares is a small, cautious regional bank with some positives: insiders buying shares and a valuation that looks reasonable. Those points help limit downside, but the whole regional-bank group is still fragile and the stock has no clear near-term driver beyond simply moving back to normal. It is a lower-priority idea until sector pressure eases.

Primary drivers

Insider buying makes managers' interests align with shareholders
Reasonable valuation can reduce downside if sector sentiment steadies
Recent price action is not extended and looks measured
Smaller-bank status makes the stock sensitive to sector headlines

How it played out

NWBI: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published NWBI at $12.41 with an expected gain of 8% and a $13.40 target. The thesis was cautious. It pointed to insider buying, reasonable valuation, measured price action, and sensitivity to regional-bank headlines. It also said there was no clear near-term driver.

The stock reached the target in 15 days. It later peaked at $14.93 on June 15, a gain of 20.3% within the window. NWBI ended the window at $14.59, still above the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 9, Northwest Bank announced plans for a fourth Columbus-area financial center. On April 27, Northwest Bancshares reported first-quarter net income of $51 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, and announced a $50 million share repurchase program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NWBI signals