Columbia Banking System Inc (COLB) — closed signal from March 24, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 22, 2026 — +16.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 24 days.
The thesis — published March 24, 2026
Company-specific updates point to a likely near-term recovery: management expects better profit margins, fee income should rise as they sell more services to existing customers, and the firm plans a large share buyback after the Pacific Premier deal. These positives help, but industry headlines about loan quality and private lending mean caution until clearer stability appears.
Primary drivers
- Management expects improved profit margins after the Pacific Premier deal
- Selling more services to existing customers should boost fee income
- A large share repurchase plan creates a clear company-specific support
- Shares sit near support following broader industry weakness
How it played out
COLB: target reached in 24 days
Lyra published COLB at $26.53 with expected growth of 12% and a $29.35 target. The thesis pointed to better profit margins after the Pacific Premier deal, more fee income from existing customers, a large share repurchase plan, and support after industry weakness.
The shares reached the target in 24 days. They later peaked at $31.84 on June 15, a gain of 20%, and ended the window at $30.87. The peak and closing price were both above the target. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On April 23, Columbia reported first-quarter net income of $192 million and said it had completed the Pacific Premier systems conversion and nine branch consolidations. On May 15, the company approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.37 per common share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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