Track record · closed signal

Frontline Ltd (FRO) — closed signal from March 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 22, 2026 — +26.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FRO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$32.78 Published $35.18 Target $41.58 Window close $41.87 Peak
$29.84 – $31.22Entry zone — fair-value band
$32.78Published — price the day we called it
$35.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$41.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$41.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

At window close
+26.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$41.58
last close inside the window, ended June 22, 2026
Peak price
$41.87
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
42

The thesis — published March 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.84 – $31.22
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$32.78
published March 24, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Frontline is a short-term, tactical shipping trade tied to higher tanker profits when Hormuz tensions rise and insurance or escort debates make shipping more expensive. The boost can be sharp but also reverses fast if geopolitics calm. The stock already prices part of this headline premium, so gains can disappear quickly when risk appetite shifts.

Primary drivers

  • Hormuz tensions can reduce available tankers and raise shipping pay
  • Insurance and escort debates keep geopolitical risk visible to markets
  • Shipping exposure can perform differently from broader energy names
  • Stock already includes headline premium, so pullbacks look more attractive

How it played out

FRO: target reached in 42 days

Lyra published FRO at 32.78 with an expected gain of 12% and a target of 35.18. The thesis pointed to Hormuz tensions, tighter tanker availability, higher shipping pay, and insurance or escort debates. It also warned that the stock already included a headline premium and could reverse quickly if geopolitical tensions eased.

FRO reached the target in 42 days. It later rose to a peak of 41.87 on June 22, a gain of 27.7%. The measurement window ended that day at 41.58, still above the target. The thesis played out and the price exceeded the published target.

What happened during the window

On May 22, Frontline reported first-quarter profit of $559.1 million and declared a cash dividend of $1.55 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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