Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from March 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 21, 2026 — +18.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$177.22 Published $207.35 Target $210.69 Window close $236.54 Peak
$172.00 – $179.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$177.22Published — price the day we called it
$207.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$210.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

At window close
+18.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+33.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$210.69
last close inside the window, ended June 21, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
32

The thesis — published March 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$207.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$172.00 – $179.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$177.22
published March 23, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is very promising because demand for its AI products is strong and recent news about new large AI factories supports that trend. However, many investors already own the stock and recent big gains make its price swing widely. That makes it look like a short-term pullback opportunity rather than a clear restart of momentum over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger demand for AI hardware after factory-related news
  • Leading position in data center products sustains the thesis
  • Recent pullback makes short-term entry conditions clearer
  • High trading liquidity and market leadership draw investor interest

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published the short-term thesis on March 23 at $177.22, with expected growth of 17%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence hardware, NVIDIA's data center position, a recent pullback, high trading liquidity, and market leadership. It also warned that recent gains and broad ownership could produce wide price swings.

The stock reached the $207.35 target in 32 days. It later peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 33.5%. By the end of the window on June 21, it was at $210.69, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its published price objective.

What happened during the window

On May 20, 2026, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion. The company also announced an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase authorization.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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