Track record · closed signal

Fluor Corporation (FLR) — closed signal from July 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FLR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.48 Published $60.75 Target $42.86 Window close $57.50 Peak
$48.50 – $50.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.48Published — price the day we called it
$60.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$42.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 65% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.50
peak on July 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$42.86
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 3, 2025 – October 1, 2025

The thesis — published July 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$60.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.50 – $50.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.48
published July 3, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Fluor just shipped the first load of liquefied natural gas from a big Canadian job it built, proving it can finish complex projects and drawing new customer interest. Orders waiting to be worked on are at a 10-year high of $27 billion, and older low-profit jobs are fading away, so earnings should get stronger. The stock is cheaper than its usual level, so a small dip could give a good buying window before a potential quick move up.

Primary drivers

  • First LNG shipment shows Fluor can deliver, likely leading to new building contracts.
  • Big spending on bridges, roads, and nuclear plants lifts orders to $27 billion, a decade high.
  • Recent average price and stronger demand point to an up-trend; a brief pullback may give a buy chance.
  • Stock trades at 13 times next year’s earnings, below its usual 17; expected higher profits could lift price.

How it played out

FLR: rally stayed below the target

Lyra published FLR on 2025-07-03 at 51.48. The thesis expected 18% growth toward 60.75 in a short-term window. It pointed to the first liquefied natural gas shipment from a Canadian project, a $27 billion backlog, demand for bridges, roads, and nuclear plants, and a valuation of 13 times next year's earnings versus its usual 17.

Inside the window, FLR rose to 57.50 on 2025-07-29, a peak gain of 11.7%. That stayed below the 60.75 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-01, the stock ended at 42.86. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target by the close.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-01, Barron's reported that Fluor had released second-quarter results and lowered its 2025 outlook. The article said the stock fell after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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