Track record · closed signal

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) — closed signal from March 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$233.71 Published $258.07 Target $256.88 Window close $278.25 Peak
$226.64 – $233.57Entry zone — fair-value band
$233.71Published — price the day we called it
$258.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$278.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$256.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

Peak price
$278.25
peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$256.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
33
Window
March 21, 2026 – June 19, 2026

The thesis — published March 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$258.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$226.64 – $233.57
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$233.71
published March 21, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Union Pacific looks like a short-term rebound candidate because the shares have fallen a lot while the company itself remains a steady way to own industrial exposure. Strong profit margins and disciplined operations help keep results steady. A recent broker upgrade makes the recovery story more believable; we prefer this over riskier industrial stocks.

Primary drivers

  • Rail network gives steady industrial exposure with pricing strength
  • Broker upgrade adds credibility to a freight recovery story
  • Strong operational control helps maintain profit margins
  • Big pullback below the short-term trend creates bounce potential

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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