Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from March 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 18, 2026 — +43.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$271.89 – $281.77Entry zone — fair-value band

$280.21Published — price the day we called it

$300.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$414.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$400.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close

+43.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+47.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+15.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$400.96

last close inside the window, ended June 18, 2026

Peak price

$414.16

peak on June 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$300.91

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$271.89 – $281.77

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$280.21

published March 20, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth looks relatively safe in healthcare, but the immediate picture isn't as clean as other choices. The stock is near a key trend level and sentiment has improved, yet recent headlines didn't give a strong, company-specific reason to push shares higher and earnings improvement feels uneven. Other names have clearer short-term drivers.

Primary drivers

Well-known healthcare business that can draw selective money
Share price sits near trend support, not extended
Recent headlines lacked clear company-specific catalysts
Recovery depends on steadier, clearer gains in earnings

How it played out

UNH: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published a cautious thesis for 8% growth from $280.21. The thesis pointed to a well-known healthcare business, a share price near trend support, and improving sentiment. It also noted the lack of clear company-specific catalysts and said recovery depended on steadier earnings gains.

The stock reached the $300.91 target in 18 days. It later peaked at $414.16 on June 15, a 47.8% gain within the window, and ended at $400.96 on June 18. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated target.

What happened during the window

On April 21, UnitedHealth Group reported first-quarter revenue of $111.7 billion and raised its full-year earnings outlook. On May 5, UnitedHealthcare announced plans to cut prior authorization requirements by 30%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UNH signals