Track record · closed signal

EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM) — closed signal from March 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 18, 2026 — -43.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EPAM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$136.00 Published $160.48 Target $76.64 Window close $141.27 Peak
$131.00 – $138.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$136.00Published — price the day we called it
$160.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$141.27Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$76.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-43.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+15.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$76.64
last close inside the window, ended June 18, 2026
Peak price
$141.27
peak on April 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$160.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$131.00 – $138.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$136.00
published March 20, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EPAM looks like a possible rebound. The company has a solid cash position, lower expectations, and new AI-focused plans plus faster buybacks. The stock is still in an early repair phase, but outside recognition of its services backs execution. This could play out over the next few months if software demand steadies.

Primary drivers

  • New AI-focused strategy gives fresh growth direction and focus
  • Faster buybacks create more near-term demand support for shares
  • Strong cash position lowers financial risk and gives flexibility
  • Recent outside recognition confirms the company can deliver on services

How it played out

EPAM: the rebound thesis did not play out

Lyra published EPAM at $136 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to a new artificial intelligence strategy, faster buybacks, a strong cash position, and outside recognition of its services. It expected those factors to support a rebound if software demand steadied.

EPAM reached a peak of $141.27 on April 2, a gain of 3.9%. It stayed below the $160.48 target throughout the window. By June 18, the price had fallen to $76.64. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, EPAM reported first-quarter revenue of $1.400 billion, up 7.6% year over year. It also reported spending $324 million on share repurchases during the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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