Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 18, 2026 — -2.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.50 – $95.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.14Published — price the day we called it

$111.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$91.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+15.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$91.70

last close inside the window, ended June 18, 2026

Peak price

$100.76

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.50 – $95.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.14

published March 20, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like a steady financial business with a near-term event that could clarify how client money and advisory fees are tracking. The stock is near a short-term support level, not extended, and recent talk about valuation suggests investors could slowly revalue the shares. The upcoming spring update is the near-term focus.

Primary drivers

Spring update is a clear near-term event that can change expectations
Client assets and advisory trends help make earnings more reliable
Share price is near a short-term trend level rather than extended
Recent valuation comments allow room for a steadier re-rating

How it played out

SCHW: the 18% growth thesis missed its target

Lyra published SCHW at $94.14 with expected growth of 18% and a $111.09 target. The thesis pointed to the spring update, client assets and advisory trends, the share price's position near a short-term trend level, and valuation comments that allowed room for a steadier re-rating.

The stock rose to a peak of $100.76 on April 15, a gain of 7%. It never reached the target. By the end of the window on June 18, it had fallen to $91.70, below the publication price. The thesis did not play out within the measured window.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, Schwab reported first-quarter net income of $2.5 billion and revenue of $6.5 billion. On June 2, 2026, the company announced trading-platform enhancements, including select cryptocurrency futures trading around the clock and broader fractional trading.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals