Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 17, 2026 — +1.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.48Published — price the day we called it

$108.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$94.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$94.51

last close inside the window, ended June 17, 2026

Peak price

$100.76

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.00 – $95.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.48

published March 19, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab is showing steady business improvement and the market pattern matches that steady story. More client assets and growth in advisory services suggest the company is doing better, while current valuation implies shares aren't fully valued yet. In a bumpy market, this mix points to a gradual, controlled rise rather than a quick rebound.

Primary drivers

More client assets help fee income and advisory sales
Consistent profit results reduce surprise risk
Market pattern supports a steady upward move
Current price levels allow room for revaluation

How it played out

SCHW: rose 7.8%, but missed the target

Lyra published SCHW at $93.48 with 16% expected growth and a $108.43 target. The thesis expected a gradual rise. It pointed to more client assets, growth in advisory services, consistent profit results, a supportive market pattern, and room for revaluation at the current price.

SCHW rose to a $100.76 peak on April 15, a 7.8% gain. That was below the $108.43 target, which it never reached during the window. The stock ended at $94.51 on June 17. The thesis partially played out because the price rose, but the expected 16% growth did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On April 16, Schwab reported first-quarter net revenue of $6.5 billion, up 16% year over year. On May 14, it reported April client assets of $12.61 trillion and $7.2 billion in core net new assets.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals