Track record · closed signal

EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM) — closed signal from March 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 17, 2026 — -36.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EPAM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$138.06 Published $158.77 Target $87.70 Window close $141.27 Peak
$132.00 – $140.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$138.06Published — price the day we called it
$158.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$141.27Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$87.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-36.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$87.70
last close inside the window, ended June 17, 2026
Peak price
$141.27
peak on April 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$158.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$132.00 – $140.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$138.06
published March 19, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EPAM is on a "watch" list because recent company actions and recognition suggest the business may recover faster than the market expects. A big buyback, a fresh strategy centered on AI work, and strong service reputation give the company tools to improve results. But trading has been quiet, so the stock needs clearer buying interest before declaring a full recovery.

Primary drivers

  • A large share buyback gives short-term price support and shows confidence
  • New AI-focused strategy could help win more projects and accelerate sales
  • Good reputation with clients helps keep contracts and steady demand
  • Strong cash position makes the company better able to handle slow periods

How it played out

EPAM: the thesis did not play out

On March 19, 2026, Lyra published a short-term thesis for EPAM at 138.06, expecting 15% growth toward 158.77. The thesis pointed to a large share buyback, a strategy centered on artificial intelligence work, client reputation, and a strong cash position. It also said trading was quiet and clearer buying interest was needed before calling a full recovery.

Inside the window, EPAM reached its peak of 141.27 on April 2, 2026, a 2.3% gain. It never reached the 158.77 target. By June 17, 2026, it had fallen to 87.70. The expected 15% rise did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, EPAM reported first-quarter revenue of $1.400 billion, up 7.6% year over year. It also said it spent $324 million on share repurchases during the quarter, including a $300 million accelerated agreement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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