Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from March 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 16, 2026 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$38.50 – $40.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$39.56Published — price the day we called it

$42.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$37.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

At window close

-6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+13.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$37.03

last close inside the window, ended June 16, 2026

Peak price

$43.08

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+7%

over the measurement window

Target price

$42.32

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$38.50 – $40.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$39.56

published March 18, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a safer, defensive pick for cautious markets, but it is not a strong short-term idea. Most recent coverage talked about small-cap ETFs rather than company news, and the firm missed earnings several times. Trading volume is low, so there is not enough fresh confirmation to justify buying now.

Primary drivers

Focusing on healthcare properties makes the business less cyclical
Healthy profit margins help the company weather slow periods
Recent price pullback created a more attractive buy area
There is limited new, company-specific news to confirm strength

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 56 days

Lyra published CTRE as a cautious short-term idea, expecting 7% growth from $39.56. The thesis pointed to healthcare properties as less cyclical, healthy profit margins, and a recent pullback that created a more attractive entry area. It also noted limited company-specific news and low trading volume, so conviction was restrained.

CTRE reached the $42.32 target in 56 days and peaked at $43.08 on May 14, a gain of 8.9%. It then fell and ended the window at $37.03 on June 16, below the publication price. The 7% target was reached inside the window, so the published price thesis played out, though the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On April 6, 2026, CareTrust announced two investments totaling about $119 million. On May 7, 2026, the company reported first-quarter results and increased its 2026 guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals