Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from March 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 16, 2026 — +14% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$181.86 Published $203.68 Target $207.41 Window close $236.54 Peak
$177.00 – $184.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$181.86Published — price the day we called it
$203.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$207.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close
+14%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+13.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$207.41
last close inside the window, ended June 16, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
36

The thesis — published March 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$203.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$177.00 – $184.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$181.86
published March 18, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a very strong business, but right now the short-term balance of risk and reward is unclear. A big licensing deal shows continued demand for AI tasks, but questions about product power and efficiency could make the stock move a lot. Since the price has not dropped enough to remove near-term risk, it is wiser to wait for clearer stabilization before buying.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for AI computing drives sales
  • Large licensing deal expands platform adoption
  • Concerns about product power and efficiency raise volatility
  • High price means fewer mistakes are tolerated

How it played out

NVDA: 12% target reached in 36 days

Lyra published a cautious short-term thesis at $181.86, with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence computing and a large licensing deal, while warning that power and efficiency concerns could increase volatility. It also said the high price left little room for mistakes.

The stock reached $203.68 in 36 days and later peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a 30.1% gain. It ended the window at $207.41, still above the target. The expected rise played out and was exceeded inside the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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