Track record · closed signal

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) — closed signal from March 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$115.74 Published $130.78 Target $121.03 Window close $137.62 Peak
$113.00 – $117.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$115.74Published — price the day we called it
$130.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$137.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$121.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

Peak price
$137.62
peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$121.03
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
27
Window
March 18, 2026 – June 16, 2026

The thesis — published March 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$130.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$113.00 – $117.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$115.74
published March 18, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Allison looks like a short-term value play based on company actions, not broad market hopes. The expanded Daimler Truck deal and a bigger dividend give clear reasons to expect steadier demand and cash flow. The stock has fallen recently, so if the price stops dropping it could slowly re-rate higher; recent earnings misses keep the view cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Daimler deal makes near-term demand easier to see
  • Higher dividend shows management trusts cash flow
  • Recent sell-off could allow a careful recovery
  • Practical industrial business avoids speculative hype

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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