Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
Blackstone just climbed out of a four-month price rut, with trading more than doubling the usual level. It has $226 billion in cash ready for fresh deals and its fee income is already rising. A new $25 billion infrastructure fund should wrap up soon, and its real-estate fund keeps drawing in money, so earnings could improve this quarter. Because most investors feel positive, the share price might approach $210 within about three months.
Primary drivers
- $226 billion in cash gives it fuel for many new investments
- $25 billion infrastructure fund should finish raising money by September
- Share price jumped above its old range with trading twice the normal level
- Everyday investors are putting more cash into its real-estate fund
How it played out
BX: target not reached in the window
Lyra published BX at 175.48 on 2025-07-25. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to 226 billion in cash for fresh investments, a 25 billion infrastructure fund, a break above the old trading range with volume at twice the usual level, and continued cash going into its real-estate fund.
Inside the window, BX rose to a peak of 188.42 on 2025-09-18, a 7.4% gain. It stayed below the 204 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-23, it ended at 153.62. The thesis partially played out on direction at first, but missed the target and finished below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Blackstone and TPG announced an agreement to buy Hologic in a transaction valued at up to 18.3 billion, including debt. On 2025-10-23, Blackstone reported third-quarter results, with earnings of 1.52 per share and revenue of 3.3 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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