Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025 — -12.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
Blackstone just climbed out of a four-month price rut, with trading more than doubling the usual level. It has $226 billion in cash ready for fresh deals and its fee income is already rising. A new $25 billion infrastructure fund should wrap up soon, and its real-estate fund keeps drawing in money, so earnings could improve this quarter. Because most investors feel positive, the share price might approach $210 within about three months.
Primary drivers
- $226 billion in cash gives it fuel for many new investments
- $25 billion infrastructure fund should finish raising money by September
- Share price jumped above its old range with trading twice the normal level
- Everyday investors are putting more cash into its real-estate fund
How it played out
BX: target not reached in the window
Lyra published BX at 175.48 on 2025-07-25. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to 226 billion in cash for fresh investments, a 25 billion infrastructure fund, a break above the old trading range with volume at twice the usual level, and continued cash going into its real-estate fund.
Inside the window, BX rose to a peak of 188.42 on 2025-09-18, a 7.4% gain. It stayed below the 204 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-23, it ended at 153.62. The thesis partially played out on direction at first, but missed the target and finished below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Blackstone and TPG announced an agreement to buy Hologic in a transaction valued at up to 18.3 billion, including debt. On 2025-10-23, Blackstone reported third-quarter results, with earnings of 1.52 per share and revenue of 3.3 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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