Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from March 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 15, 2026 — +15.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$184.25 Published $213.73 Target $212.45 Window close $236.54 Peak
$178.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$184.25Published — price the day we called it
$213.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$212.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

At window close
+15.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+28.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$212.45
last close inside the window, ended June 15, 2026
Peak price
$236.54
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
41

The thesis — published March 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$213.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$178.00 – $186.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$184.25
published March 17, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is kept under close observation because the company and its news are very strong, but many investors already own it so the stock can move sharply and may not fall much before rebounding. New enterprise programs and a bigger AI chip opportunity point to continued demand, so the plan is to buy gradually on pullbacks, not to chase fast gains.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing company news keeps AI demand momentum visible and credible
  • More enterprise deployments show real customer adoption continuing
  • Large scale and strong cash flow make the business unusually solid
  • Many investors already own it, so prefer buying on weakness

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 41 days

Lyra published a 16% growth thesis for NVDA. The thesis pointed to visible demand for artificial intelligence chips, more enterprise deployments, the company's scale and cash flow, and the risk of sharp moves because many investors already owned the stock. It favored gradual purchases during pullbacks.

The price reached the 213.73 target in 41 days. It later peaked at 236.54 on May 14, a 28.4% gain. By June 15, it had fallen to 212.45, just below the target. The published thesis played out within the measurement window and exceeded its expected growth at the peak.

What happened during the window

On May 20, NVIDIA reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier. This announcement came after the window's May 14 price peak.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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