Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 15, 2026 — -4.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.32 Published $106.76 Target $90.95 Window close $100.76 Peak
$93.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.32Published — price the day we called it
$106.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$90.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+5.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$90.95
last close inside the window, ended June 15, 2026
Peak price
$100.76
peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$106.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.00 – $96.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.32
published March 17, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock is recommended because the company's business is showing clear improvement: clients are bringing more money in and revenue forecasts look firmer. That makes the recovery story about the company's operations, not just the market. The shares are trading near a stable area, so short-term risk-reward for a 0-3 month hold looks sensible even if interest rates affect results.

Primary drivers

  • More client assets are helping revenue become more reliable
  • The brokerage business is less tied to risky credit issues
  • Shares are trading close to a stable level, not overheated
  • Recent updates show steady operational improvement, not just market hope

How it played out

SCHW: rose 5.7% but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 12% growth from 95.32, with a 106.76 target. The thesis pointed to rising client assets, firmer revenue forecasts, less exposure to risky credit issues, and steady operational improvement. It also viewed the shares near a stable level rather than overheated.

The price rose to 100.76 on April 15, a peak gain of 5.7%. It never reached the 106.76 target. By June 15, it had fallen to 90.95, below the 95.32 publication price. The shares briefly moved in the expected direction, but the 12% growth thesis did not play out within the window.

What happened during the window

On April 16, Charles Schwab reported first-quarter net income of $2.5 billion, earnings per share of $1.37, and net revenue of $6.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals